Current US Defense Exports to Europe:
In 2024, US Foreign Military Sales notifications to European customers reached $76 billion, four times the European average since 2008 Bruegel. European states accounted for 35% of total US arms exports.
The Eight Targeted Countries' F-35 Commitments Alone:
Looking at just the F-35 programs for the countries Trump is targeting:

Norway: 52 F-35s (completed, worth ~$10 billion+)
Denmark: 43 F-35s (recently increased)
Finland: 64 F-35s ($9.4 billion, deliveries starting 2026)
Netherlands: 52 F-35s
Germany: 35 F-35s ($8.4 billion approved)
UK: Large fleet of F-35Bs

Combined, these represent $40-50+ billion in aircraft purchases alone, not counting:

Maintenance contracts (decades of service)
Weapons systems
Training programs
Spare parts
Upgrades

Annual Impact:
From 2022 to 2024, FMS notifications for European NATO countries represented 50.7% of their spending on military equipment Bruegel. If these eight countries pivoted to European alternatives like Rafale, Gripen, and Eurofighter, the US defense industry could lose $20-40 billion annually in ongoing contracts and future sales.
Long-term Impact:
Over the 30-year lifespan of these F-35 fleets, with maintenance, upgrades, and parts, we're talking about $100-200+ billion in lost revenue to Lockheed Martin and the broader US defense industrial base.